Tuesday, April 26, 2011

Of yearnings like probity!

I dont know how I got there, considering I dont really read The Telegraph of Kolkata, but somehow I managed to stumble upon this (http://www.telegraphindia.com/1110426/jsp/opinion/story_13899511.jsp). The author was trying to make a point about what constitutes a responsible member of "civil society", in the wake of the protests, et al that were organized in New Delhi by Anna Hazare (if you haven't heard of him yet, the rest of this piece might not be the best place to get started either!). By corollary, it set me thinking on the issue of "probity in public life", and the line that separates the proletariat from the "public figures".
What, however, would happen if people aspiring to be "public figures" were to be required to pass tests of certain basic skills? What I'm proposing is not very different from the equivalent of the Civil Services exam, except for not being so onerous. What if every single person desirous of representing the larger populace (and hence, serving the public as they apparently aspire to!) were required to take an exam in an Indian language of their choice, testing them on their basic understanding of the philosophies underlying principal governance systems, of the division of powers between different levels of government, maybe world history (at least superficially), and possibly a few other relevant topics (I listed the ones that came to my mind right away!). Wouldn't it provide us with a choice of at least slightly better informed "public figures"? Logistically, it doesn't appear to be a very difficult thing to conduct, and the wider the choice of languages available for testing, the more inclusive the class of public representatives would appear to be. Passing this exam every 20 years or so could be used as a pre-requisite to putting oneself up for candidature.
If this were to be used as a qualification criterion & any pending litigation for criminal charges as a disqualification criterion, I feel reasonably confident that as a society, we could end up being represented by a more savoury bunch than that which Andre Beteille has depicted in the Telegraph op-ed. I also realize that the disqualification criterion could be misused to rob potentially great leaders of the opportunity to govern, but then it's not trivial either in our judicial system to bring someone to face criminal charges, to begin with. More to the point, however small the possibility of a person having committed a crime, erring on the side of caution only pushes more aspiring leaders to embrace the ideal of probity that we're railing towards.

Monday, March 16, 2009

T.I.N.A.! Or is there?

A holiday through last week has been a welcome break...albeit from doing nothing. And where I would normally have struggled to find something meaningful to ponder, the last 10 days have been a veritable trove.

Soon's I got back to the chores of calling up Poor Foreigner Investors (to tell them, yet again, that nothing had changed since I last called them!), I have been beseiged with questions about the Third Front that's apparently woken up after a 10 yr hiatus. Somehow, that particular bunch of politicians has given me nothing but loads of cringe-worthy memories. Of Prime Minister Gowda sleeping through Parliament proceedings, countless seminars & conferences, public rallies, and heck, I think even one international summit (if I'm not mistaken!). And of the venerable Sharad Yadav sneering at Prime Minister Gujral, and taunting him & calling him names in public, that I would have used for street fights when I must have been 12 yrs old!

So, the second most popular question that PFIs (Poor Foreigner Investors) have been bombarding me with, all morning, is precisely this: what is the probability of this bunch coming to power come Jun 2 & what would that mean for their PPIs (Poor Portfolio Investments)? (The most popular one was whether we would end up being ruled by a narrow coalition or a broad coalition, and what, incidentally, did the two bloody terms really mean!!) I am no psephologist, but does one really believe this rag-tag bunch, united by nothing save an unwillingness to support the 500-pound gorillas (Congress & BJP), could come to rule the country.
All past four instances of Third Front governments have been in existence only with support from either of the gorillas (VP Singh & Chandrasekhar propped up by the BJP, and Gowda & Gujral by the Congress) and brought down precisely at the behest of the self-same gorillas. And this bunch is about to rule us, all by themselves?? You got to be kidding me!

To be fair, I did think of the possibility of (heavens!) Mayawati becoming the next Prime Minister, and I confess to a real shudder that passed through me (much to the bemusement of my colleagues today!). Actually, Jayalalitha & Deve Gowda as other potential candidates for the job, cause me the same amount of consternation. Mayawati is arguably the richest politician in the country, with billions of rupees worth of declared assets, and more obviously, not all of it could have been earned through the scrupulous means of public service that she claims to be engaged in. On becoming PM, will she now propose to build shopping complexes around the Qutub Minar, Rashtrapati Bhavan, Gateway of India & the Victoria Memorial now (reminiscent of the Taj project!)? What kind of foreign policy initiatives can one expect from the likes of Jayalalitha, who was unable to make any impact in relation to the LTTE even when she was in power in Tamil Nadu? Precisely at a time when the country will need careful economic stewardship to avoid a further ballooning of a dangerous fiscal deficit (projected to be 12% of GDP in FY10), how much faith can one repose in a motley bunch who have not been guilty of good governance at the state level, much less the centre?

Can someone tell me, what really, is the ideology of the BSP? (Did anyone notice them claiming that "true to their ideology", they would NOT be releasing an election manifesto!!!) Or that of the JD (S), for that matter? Has Chandrababu Naidu finally figured out what he stands for - utopian CII-promoted dreams or a farmers' revolution? And most importantly, what is the common ground that these parochial satraps will come to stand on? The fact of these regional parties coming to be of such importance on the national political stage is testament to how venal governance has come to be. This utter lack of scruples & naked display of ambition for power is ultimately to be blamed on no one but our own selves. I was highly amused to read today that another Ram Sene equivalent blocked the erection of a Charlie Chaplin statue on the sets of a Kannada film, on the grounds that Chaplin was Christian! Ironical!! (Ask Senator McCarthy who indicted Chaplin of being a Communist!) The moot point of the incident was the fact that blind tolerance on our own part, for such pathetic posturing under the garb of cultural policing, is leading to our own ruin at a larger scale.

In all fairness, though, even from a numerical stand-point, I find it difficult to believe that said Third Front will find it possible to reach the magical 272 figure. Even if Mulayam Singh Yadav were to, suicidally, decide not to align with the Congress in the UP, the upper limit to the number of seats that Maya might win is just 50 (compared to the 16 she holds now). This gain just about neutralizes the loss of around 30-35 seats that the Left front faces in West Bengal & Kerala. Add to this, the maximum upside possible for the likes of Deve Gowda, Jayalalitha, Naveen Patnaik and (shudder again!) Deve Gowda, the most optimistic prediction could not possibly be much in excess of 200 seats.

Ergo, we can all rest at relative peace. However much you might hate the dynastic, arrogant & inertia-bound politics of the Congress or the communal fervor that a resurgent BJP would stoke through its allies, even if not by itself, you have to accept it - really, T.I.N.A. - There Is No Alternative! (And to think, the last serious time this slogan was used in politics, an iron-fisted lady led her country out of a deep economic morass!!)

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The next time you decide to take a break in Goa, and want to be away from the crowds, try checking out Colva beach. I stayed at a little gem called William's Beach Resort. Nothing fancy, but fantastic food & an absolute break from any crowds...and of course, the sea right at your doorstep!

Wednesday, March 4, 2009

The messiah is leading us to a golden age (part-II)

Seeing the lone response to my last post, I am tempted to clarify my stand. Yes, it's true that I am cynical about the entire hype surrounding the massive positive change that President Obama is supposed to signify. Clearly, in comparison to the last 8 yrs of mis-governance that US citizens have suffered, even Mickey Mouse would appear a sane alternative. But my concern centres primarily around the way the current administration is bungling up the one fantastic opportunity it has, to make a clean break & start afresh. So much for change-we-can-believe-in!

Obviously, this is not the most unique bust-up in financial markets that has ever taken place. Nor is it unique that the malaise has spread to affect Main Street as well. What is unique, though, is that because the household economy is hyper-leveraged, any stimulus in the form of tax breaks, rebates & the like will only go toward paying down debt (in my view, the savings rate for the US households bottomed out in 2007 at around -4%). This is exactly in line with previous recessions which occurred on account of corporate hyper-leverage, and in which extra money was ploughed to pay back debt instead of completing investment plans. Further increases in savings by households are inevitable; you may as well perish the thought of stimulating consumption by doling out checks. The worst-case scenario is a debt-deflation spiral!

The other disappointment is in the sphere of the financial sector clean-up. Instead of a ring-fencing of dodgy assets (to be dealt with, independently) to permit otherwise-healthy banks to continue lending to keep the economic engine moving, an extremely dangerous dithering on policy direction has not only exacerbated the situation for corporates but also spilt over into EM currency & debt markets. IMHO, a rigged financial system with a "No Bank Left Behind" approach is doomed to fail in a societal context that adheres to Darwinian laws related to survival. The icing on the cake is a dangerous obsession with superfluous issues. Senator John Kerry's attack on banks that spend money on clients (as last evidenced in the Northern Trust Corp case) appears extremely short-sighted & seems to borrow a leaf from the books of some glorious Indian TV news channels (viz. India TV, Aaj Tak, I could on & on!). He is wont to call business promotion expenses "idiotic". Why Congressmen should be permitted to stand in judgment of how businesses should entertain clients, foster stronger relationships & subtly ferret out cues for the next opportunity, I will never quite gather. If anyone were to ask me (which is the pity really - no one ever does!!), I'd say one man's idocy is clearly another man's business investment.

Yet, the biggest crisis facing the world may not turn out to be the US consumer. Nor even the US Dollar. In spite of a now-certain blow out in deficit spending & government borrowings on the anvil, the USD appears to be winning the battle of lousy currencies. It has come to resemble a beauty pageant featuring butt-ugly naked women! The bigger crisis concerns the future of the Euro - as evidenced in sky-rocketing sovereign spreads for Greek, Italian, Spanish & Portuguese bonds. By corollary, this can be expected to have immense bearing on potential defaults by East European countries. This will likely be the next shoe to drop in the race to the bottom! (more on this in another post, I guess)

In case anyone ever wondered about the title of the last post & this one, the context is precisely this: are we headed back to the Gold standard for currencies? The recent tear that Gold has been on (and has since marginally corrected) would, on the face of it, appear to be a natural reaction to fears of inflation taking root for the long-term, fueled by the super-cheap money binge that the messiah's administration has embarked on. But then, one look at TIPS blows that hypothesis to bits. According to last trades, long-term inflation expectations implied by TIPS prices suggest that the market does not expect inflation to average more than 1% over the course of the next 10 years. Hardly hyper-inflations, wouldn't you say?

My take on this is the exact opposite: I suspect more folks just want to hoard Gold to protect themselves from all-round asset deflation, instead of hedging against inflation. After all, it's the only form of currency not contaminated by credit, spending binges, outright monetization & dubious stimuli! In sum, maybe we go back to proving our forefathers (Who used gold as the prime currency for international trade) right....the messiah is leading us back to the golden ages!!

p.s : This is not to say that I am in favor of using the gold standard, but more on that later.

Friday, February 27, 2009

On being born a millionaire & batting like one!

I have vague recollection of a joke I read a long while back about how wonderful it would be to live life backward - being born with a lot of money and to be fussed over by a bunch of your children, grandchildren, nurses & such-like. To be given a gold watch on your first day in office, to grow more energetic as you go through life, be able to play sports better, get better in bed (& be complimented for it, more often!!), to pursue money less & less, in favor of other pleasures, be able to eat far more chocolates & ice-cream & chips as you get along, and to be forgiven more often for all kinds of misdemeanors in increasing frequency. And I remember thinking then, "Yeah, I could get used to that kind of life!"

I watched a brilliant movie called "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" yesterday, and it's forced a re-think of that fantasy! The short story by F Scott Fitzgerald, from which this movie is apparently adapted was a farcical comedy (Benjamin would have been born 5'8" tall; I shudder to think of the woman who had to push that size out!!!) whereas Eric Roth here (same chap who wrote Forrest Gump, another fantastic movie) has turned it into a brooding forlorn tribute to relationships.

Indeed, in the context of the few truly beatiful relationships I treasure in my life, I hate to think how they would have turned out if I were aging in reverse to these fantastic people who have helped me grow & who I've seen growing with me. In hindsight, it's those tender, joyful, sad, bitter, sweet & quiet moments that define my life and I'd hate to have them ruined by a reversed life, even in exchange for increased material & carnal joy (ref first paragraph of this post). Do I think I would have enjoyed being confined to a wheelchair instead of learning to play cricket with the kids in my neighbourhood? Would I have liked watching from a car / rickshaw while my friends raced each other downhill on their bicycles? Would it have been more fun to watch from inside the hostel while my friends scaled the wall to get back in after sneaking out for some late night fun? I could come up with a hundred such questions with just one answer. Heck, no!

I know I am mixing up the two contexts, but what I am trying to say is that the broader point that the movie made is not lost on me - namely that while it's common-place to talk of one's relationships being based on emotional bonds & matters of the mind or heart, one seldom realizes the physiological context of these relationships. For me, one scene summed it up - where Benjamin tells Daisy even before Caroline's turned one year old, "We need to find a new father for her.....you can't be raising the both of us!" The unsaid sub-text of the conversation, I am sure, was "You can't be raising the both of us, even while you get older!"

Time, ultimately, is the third omni-present partner in every relationship between two people!

In the context of a separate chain of emails I was engaged in, in the aftermath of reasonably widespread cheering for Slumdog's Oscar wins, I am tempted to re-iterate that Benjamin Button was, by far, the more worthy movie & was helmed by the more worthy director. But, surely, this is not the first travesty of justice that the Academy Awards committees have perpetrated. Witness Crash winning Best Picture in a year that featured Brokeback Mountain, Capote and Good Night & Good Luck. Witness Shakespeare in Love winning in a year that featured Saving Private Ryan and Life is Beautiful. Oh, well!
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A word for our Some Slog Millionaires touring NZ these days - I think they are captained by one of the most level-headed yet aggressive men I have known of. One just wishes they would pay a little more attention to the pertinent points he made (in his trademark style, crisp & devoid of melodrama of any kind) after the first T20 match. One such gem, "...even if you go after the bowlers for [the whole of] 20 overs, you don't score more than 220-230. So you have to figure out whether you're happy with the score of 180 or 190 or whether you look for those extra 25 runs, which you might not actually need, and instead end up getting 160-odd." What a man!

Thursday, February 26, 2009

The messiah is leading us to a golden age (part I)

Ladies & gentlemen, it gives me immense pleasure to inform you (in case you've been busy with something interesting, presumably!) that no news channels or wires will, henceforth, be speculating about the nationalization of Citigroup, Vikram Pandit's home and his underwear. For crying it out loud, it was already done; and they just made it official yesterday evening. And with that, the glorious business of America (Which was business) has now officially become government business!

I, for one, am more than just plain happy to be rid of making fine distinctions between bouts of verbal gymnastics / semantic contortions / what-have-you, in relation to nationalization. Nonetheless, the chain of events over the last 3 months since Obama's anointment as the new messiah for change-we-can-believe-in, still leaves me very worried. And I suspect at least every seventh person in the world (I am reliably informed that five-sevenths of the world doesn't understand American politics and/or business, and one-seventh is too stoned to care!) would know why.

For starters, consider this about the Obama rescue plan: it plans to rescue indebted Americans from hyper-leverage by offering them more debt! How does that sound to the lay person on the street? It would have been bad enough if this was all there was to the whole sorry business. Now, those banks that had conveniently hidden away their exposures to "Special Investment Vehicles" & "Off-Balance Sheet Liabilities" are about to be rescued by becoming the government's SIVs & OBLs. Give me a break, guys!

I wonder if the world would have been a better place if the American govt had just told the world that they were about to fund construction of houses for every single citizen, and just have distributed them for free, in proportion to family size & income. At least, the whole sorry business about buying toys (with suspected carcinogenic effects) from China & clothes (that bleed colors) from India, on the basis of some imagined home equity, wouldn't have been needed.

Maybe, the US Congress is just sticking its tongue out to the erstwhile USSR & to China....See, we're eventually going to turn socialist / communist, after having convinced you poor sods that free markets were the way to go!! Oh & Mr Brown, we're speaking on your behalf as well. Thank you all very much for being such an appreciative audience. The show's over now; would you pls donate a few gold bricks on your way out?

The second part of the rescue plan hinges on a seriously unhinged stimulus. A stimulus which, among other things, plans to "Make Work Pay". What?? Seriously, WHAT?!?!? Doesn't it already pay? Shovel-ready projects, you say! Anyone with a shovel could get ready with a project...who knows, Ms Palin might just change her mind about the Bridge to Nowhere, and presto, you have another shovel-ready project! I could spend ages discussing the merits of transportation projects relative to investments in power grids & water supply, with regard to employment creation & their stand-alone contribution to GDP growth. I could also spend ages discussing the relative merits of toll-financed projects vis-a-vis tax-financed projects (which appears to be the clear intention of the messiah's regime, down the line!!). I suspect it would suffice to say that the current inclination is to evaluate the feasibility of an infrastructure project on a stand-alone basis, instead of an evaluation within the framework of a holistic plan. Disheartening stuff, really!

And this coming from the man who clearly had a better grasp of economic issues, when evaluated prior to the Nov elections. Now, then, what would Mr McCain have done? OMG, let's not even venture there!

p.s :- You ask why one-seventh of the world & not one-fifth? Oh, well...the thing is, 98.674% of statistics are made up on the spot!